How to build a real NOI
The cap rate is only as honest as the NOI underneath it. And NOI is where seller pitch decks quietly inflate.
Start with effective gross income — gross rent minus a realistic vacancy allowance, plus any other income. Then subtract every recurring operating expense: taxes, insurance, management (even if you manage yourself — your time has a price), repairs, utilities, HOA, landscaping, pest, advertising.
Do not subtract: mortgage payments, depreciation, capital expenditures (a new roof is not an OpEx), income tax. These belong in other models — not in NOI.
If you want a quick sanity check, expense ratios usually run 30–50% of effective gross income for residential and 25–40% for commercial. Anything dramatically below those bands is probably missing line items.
What’s a good cap rate, really?
It depends on three things: asset class, market tier, and condition.
Roughly speaking, 2026 benchmarks look like this. Multifamily 4.5–6.5%. Industrial 5–7%. Self-storage 5.5–7.5%. Retail 6–8%. Office 6–9%. Hotels 7–9%+. Single-family rentals in most US markets sit between 5% and 8%, with a wide spread.
Inside each class, primary markets (NYC, LA, SF, Boston) trade at lower cap rates because investors will accept a thinner yield in exchange for stability and growth. Tertiary markets trade at higher cap rates because the same building carries more risk. A 5.5% cap on Class B multifamily in Austin is a different animal from a 5.5% cap on Class B multifamily in Cleveland.
Cap rate vs cash-on-cash vs IRR
Three metrics, three different questions.
Cap rate answers: how is this property priced relative to others? It strips out financing so you can compare across deals on equal terms.
Cash-on-cash answers: what return am I getting on the cash I actually put in? It includes the mortgage. Smart financing on a modest cap rate often beats all-cash on a high one.
IRR answers: what’s my total return over the hold, including appreciation and exit? It needs assumptions about rent growth, exit cap rate, and hold period — which means it can be massaged. Cap rate is harder to fake.
Use all three. Cap rate to screen. Cash-on-cash to size your equity. IRR to think about the whole hold.
Why cap rates compress and expand
Cap rates move with the cost of capital. When the 10-year treasury falls, buyers can accept lower yields and still hit their return hurdles — cap rates compress, prices rise. When rates rise, the opposite happens.
Cap rates also move with sentiment. In hot markets, buyers stretch and accept thinner yields on the bet that rents will catch up. In recessions, even strong properties trade wider because nobody wants to be the buyer.
If you’re holding, cap rate compression is the wind at your back. If you’re buying, it’s the wind in your face. Knowing where you are in the cycle matters at least as much as the spreadsheet.
Common cap rate mistakes
- Using gross rent instead of NOI — instantly overstates the cap rate by 30–50%.
- Forgetting vacancy and management — even if you self-manage, both are real costs.
- Comparing cap rates across asset classes as if they were equivalent — a 7% office cap is not equal to a 7% multifamily cap.
- Using seller-projected NOI without verifying it against trailing financials.
- Ignoring deferred maintenance — a low expense ratio today often means a CapEx bill tomorrow.
- Treating cap rate as the buy signal instead of the screen — it tells you the property is priced fairly, not that the deal is good for you.