See how long your portfolio lasts at your chosen monthly withdrawal rate and return assumption.
Free retirement withdrawal planner. Model your monthly spending against any return and inflation assumption, see the depletion year, and back-solve the safe withdrawal rate that lasts your full target horizon.
Direct answers to the most common questions, in plain language. Skim if you're in a hurry; dig deeper below.
Depends on withdrawal rate, returns, and inflation — typically 25–35 years at 4%.
Most balanced portfolios sustain a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate for about 30 years. Higher withdrawal rates, weak early returns, or high inflation can shorten that to 18–22 years. The simulator above runs your exact numbers year by year.
Withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year.
The Trinity Study found that a 4% initial withdrawal (adjusted upward each year for inflation) historically lasted at least 30 years in a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio in nearly every starting year studied. It is a planning anchor, not a guarantee.
Most planners suggest 3.5–4% for a 30-year horizon.
With current bond yields, equity valuations, and a long retirement horizon, many planners recommend a starting withdrawal rate between 3.3% and 4.0%. Use 4.5–5% only for shorter horizons of 20 years or less.
Yes — at 3% inflation, your spending doubles in 24 years.
A retirement that ignores inflation will run dry years earlier than you expect. At 3% inflation, $60,000 of spending today becomes about $122,000 in 24 years. Always model real (inflation-adjusted) withdrawals.
The mechanics in short answers — no jargon, no upsell.
You tell us what you need to spend each month in today's dollars. The model treats that as year-one withdrawal.
Each subsequent year, the withdrawal grows by your inflation assumption so your real spending stays constant.
Whatever balance remains earns the annual return you set. The simulator subtracts the next year's withdrawal and repeats.
We mark the year your balance hits zero, and back-solve the monthly withdrawal that exactly lasts your target horizon.
Designed so anyone can model their situation in under a minute, with or without a finance background.
See exactly how many years your portfolio supports your lifestyle at the chosen withdrawal rate.
Withdrawals grow each year so the result reflects real purchasing power, not nominal dollars.
A built-in solver suggests the monthly withdrawal that lasts your full target horizon.
Adjust returns down and inflation up to see how fragile your assumptions really are.
A year-by-year chart shows the balance curve and pinpoints depletion year and age.
Use the safe-rate output to set a sustainable monthly budget you can actually live on.
Everything you might ask before, during, or after using this tool.
At a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal ($40,000/year, growing with inflation) and a 5% nominal return with 3% inflation, $1,000,000 typically lasts roughly 30 years. Push withdrawals to 6% and the same portfolio can deplete in 18–20 years.
It is a reasonable starting point. Bill Bengen, the rule's creator, has since suggested 4.7% is workable for many retirees, while Morningstar and others have argued for 3.7% given current valuations. For a 30-year retirement, anything in the 3.5–4.5% band is defensible.
For a balanced 60/40 portfolio in retirement, 5% nominal (about 2% real after 3% inflation) is a conservative planning number. Use 6–7% for equity-heavy portfolios, 4% for bond-heavy ones. Always run the calculator at one rate lower than your favorite, just to see.
Always adjusted for inflation when planning. Fixed-dollar withdrawals look good on paper but slowly destroy your purchasing power. A $5,000/month withdrawal that never grows is worth only $2,800/month in 24 years at 3% inflation.
Bad returns in the first 5–10 years of retirement do far more damage than bad returns later. The reason: you're selling shares to fund spending, and selling more shares at low prices permanently shrinks the portfolio. This is why most retirees should reduce equity exposure slightly entering retirement.
Drop your return rate by 2–3 percentage points in the calculator and see how many years that costs you. If a base-case 30-year portfolio still lasts 22+ years under that stress test, you have a reasonable margin of safety.
For short horizons — yes. A 15-year retirement can usually sustain 6–7%. A 40-year retirement may need to start closer to 3.3%. The longer the horizon, the lower the safe rate.
Yes — significantly. Subtract your expected annual Social Security benefit from your desired spending before computing the withdrawal rate. That alone often turns a 5% rate into a sustainable 3.5%.
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The 4% rule is shorthand for: withdraw 4% of your starting balance in year one, then adjust that dollar amount up by inflation every subsequent year. Do that, and a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio historically lasted at least 30 years in nearly every starting year studied.
The rule was not designed for 40-year retirements, ultra-low bond yields, or portfolios that are 90% in tech stocks. It is a planning anchor — a place to start the conversation. Your real plan should stress-test against worse returns, higher inflation, and a longer life than you expect.
Two retirees with the same average return over 30 years can end up in wildly different places, depending on when the bad years hit. The retiree who gets a -20% year in year one is selling shares at low prices to fund spending — those shares never come back, even when the market recovers.
The fixes are unsexy and effective: hold 1–2 years of expenses in cash, slightly reduce equity exposure entering retirement, and be willing to cut withdrawals 10–15% during the first big drawdown. A flexible retiree almost never runs out of money.
A fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawal (the 4% rule) is simple but rigid. It does not respond to a market crash, which is exactly when responsiveness helps most.
Dynamic strategies — Guyton-Klinger, the floor-and-ceiling approach, RMD-style percentage-of-balance — adjust spending based on portfolio performance. They are more complex but historically supported higher initial withdrawal rates with the same or better safety. If you can stomach a 10% spending cut after a bad year, dynamic is worth the complexity.
Two short notes worth reading before you trust any number on this page.
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