Project your FIRE number and the year you can retire based on what you spend and what you save.
Free Financial Independence / Retire Early planner. Enter your spending, savings, and expected return — see your FIRE number, your retirement age, and how a few extra dollars per month can shave years off your timeline.
Direct answers to the most common questions, in plain language. Skim if you're in a hurry; dig deeper below.
About 25× your annual expenses at a 4% withdrawal rate.
Your FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) number is the portfolio size that can fund your lifestyle indefinitely from investment returns. The classic shortcut is 25× annual expenses, derived from the 4% safe withdrawal rate.
Withdraw 4% in year one, adjust for inflation thereafter.
The Trinity Study found a portfolio of 60% stocks / 40% bonds historically survived 30+ years when retirees withdrew 4% of the starting balance and adjusted that dollar amount for inflation each year. It is a planning rule of thumb, not a guarantee.
It depends on your savings rate more than your income.
At a 50% savings rate, most workers can reach FIRE in roughly 17 years from zero, regardless of salary. Higher savings rates compress the timeline; lower rates lengthen it dramatically.
Use real returns and today's dollars to keep things simple.
Real (inflation-adjusted) returns let you express your FIRE number in today's dollars. A common assumption is 7% nominal minus 3% inflation = 4% real for a diversified equity portfolio.
The mechanics in short answers — no jargon, no upsell.
At a 4% withdrawal rate, you need 25× annual expenses. At 3%, you need 33×. The lower the SWR, the more conservative — and the bigger the target.
Each year, the balance grows by your real return and you add new savings. We simulate year by year until the balance reaches the FIRE number.
If you save 10% of income, FIRE takes ~51 years. At 50%, it takes ~17. At 70%, ~8.5. The math doesn't care what you earn — only what you keep.
A change from 4% to 5% real return can shave years off. So can being honest about your spending. Both inputs deserve a careful look.
Designed so anyone can model their situation in under a minute, with or without a finance background.
Type in your spending and get the portfolio size you need to retire — no spreadsheet required.
Compound your current savings + annual contributions to find the year you cross the finish line.
See how a small bump to your savings rate or a different return assumption shifts your FIRE age.
Understand Lean, Fat, Coast, and Barista FIRE — and which one fits your life.
Tune the SWR from 3% (conservative) to 5% (aggressive) and see the immediate impact on your target.
Real-return math keeps numbers comparable to your current cost of living, not future inflated dollars.
Everything you might ask before, during, or after using this tool.
Recent research from Morningstar and Bill Bengen (the rule's original author) suggests 4% is still reasonable for a 30-year retirement, and some studies argue 4.5–5% may be safe if you have flexibility to cut spending in bad years. For very long retirements (40+ years), 3.25–3.5% is a more conservative starting point.
Lean FIRE retires on minimal expenses (often <$40k/yr). Fat FIRE targets a richer lifestyle ($100k+). Coast FIRE is when your existing portfolio will grow to your full FIRE number on its own — you just need to cover current expenses until retirement. Barista FIRE is a middle path: a part-time job covers some expenses while the portfolio finishes growing.
Use real returns and keep your spending in today's dollars. That way, the FIRE number you see is meaningful today — no need to mentally inflate it. A typical assumption is 4% real (7% nominal minus 3% inflation).
Not directly. Your annual expenses input should include taxes you expect to pay in retirement, and your annual savings should be the amount actually going into investment accounts (post-tax for taxable, pre-tax for 401k). For most early retirees, effective tax rates on portfolio withdrawals are low — often 0–15%.
The 4% rule already accounts for the worst historical sequences, including 1929 and 1966. Still, retiring into a steep bear market is risky. Strategies to mitigate: hold 1–3 years of expenses in cash, use a "bond tent" near retirement, or have flexibility to cut spending temporarily.
Yes, if your savings rate is high. Mr. Money Mustache famously retired at 30 on a middle-class engineer's salary. The lever is the gap between income and expenses, not the absolute income.
Not for the early-retirement years. If you plan to retire at 50, you can't count on Social Security until age 62–70. Some planners model Social Security as a "side income" that reduces the FIRE number you need after age 67, but for safety, many people exclude it entirely.
Then your FIRE date shifts. A 1% drop in real return on a 25-year horizon can delay FIRE by 3–5 years. The best defense is conservative assumptions plus flexibility — be willing to work one more year if markets disappoint.
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The 4% rule comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which tested historical 30-year retirements with various withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations. A 4% initial withdrawal (adjusted yearly for inflation) survived nearly every 30-year window in US market history, including the Great Depression.
The 25× rule is just the inverse: if you withdraw 4% per year, you need 25 years × your annual expenses to fund a single year — and the portfolio's growth covers the rest. Spending $60,000/yr? You need $1.5M. Spending $40,000/yr? You need $1M.
The rule's biggest assumption is a balanced portfolio (50–75% stocks). With more bonds or cash, the safe rate drops. With more international or alternative assets, results are less predictable.
Lean FIRE: retire on tight budgets, often under $40k/yr. Works in low-cost-of-living areas or for people genuinely happy with simple lives. Requires the smallest portfolio (often $700k–$1M) but the least margin for error.
Fat FIRE: $100k+/yr spending. Bigger target ($2.5M+) but generous lifestyle and large safety cushion. Common path for high earners in tech, medicine, and finance.
Coast FIRE: your portfolio is already large enough to grow to full FIRE on its own. You've "won" the savings race — you just need to cover current expenses until traditional retirement. Many people hit this in their 40s and shift to lower-stress work.
Barista FIRE: a hybrid where a part-time job (with benefits like health insurance) covers most of your expenses while the portfolio continues to grow untouched. Popular for people who want to leave high-pressure careers but aren't fully ready to stop working.
Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can have wildly different outcomes if one experiences a bear market in years 1–5 and the other in years 25–30. Selling stocks at depressed prices early in retirement permanently shrinks the portfolio.
Defenses: hold 1–3 years of cash, build a "bond tent" that's heavier in bonds at retirement and gradually shifts back to stocks, or simply have spending flexibility — the willingness to cut 10–20% of discretionary spending in a bad year is statistically more powerful than any allocation tweak.
Two short notes worth reading before you trust any number on this page.
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