Gross burn vs net burn — the only two numbers that matter
Gross burn is brutally simple: it's every dollar your company spends in a month, full stop. Payroll, rent, software subscriptions, contractor invoices, AWS bills, the office espresso machine subscription you forgot you signed up for. Add them up. That's gross burn.
Net burn is gross burn minus monthly revenue. This is the number that determines runway and the number you should be reporting in board updates. A $300k/month gross burn sounds terrifying until you mention you're also pulling in $250k/month — at which point your net burn is a survivable $50k.
Default alive vs default dead — the Paul Graham frame
In 2015, Paul Graham wrote a short essay that reframed how a generation of founders thinks about their startups. The question isn't "am I making money?" The question is: at your current growth rate and current burn, will you reach profitability before you run out of cash?
If yes, you're default alive. You can take your time, choose your investors, negotiate from strength. If no, you're default dead — and every decision you make should be evaluated through the lens of getting back to default alive.
The calculator above tells you which one you are, and what it would take to flip the answer.
The 18-month runway rule (and when it breaks)
For a decade, the canonical advice was to raise enough to fund 18 months of operations. Twelve months to hit your next milestones, six months to run the next raise. In bull markets, founders pushed that down to 12. In downturns, the smart ones push it up to 24 or 30.
The 18-month number assumes a relatively short fundraising cycle and a forgiving market. If you're raising into a downturn, hiring is harder, deals take longer, and term sheets get pulled. Plan for the world where everything takes 50% longer than you expect.
When to start fundraising — working backwards from zero
The math is uncomfortable but useful. Work backwards from the month you run out of cash. Subtract 3 months because Series A wires happen 3 months after a yes. Subtract another 3 months for the actual fundraise process. Subtract another 3 if you want to negotiate, not beg.
That gives you 9 months of runway minimum before you start the next raise. If you're reading this with less than 9 months in the bank, start tomorrow.
What investors look at — burn multiple and efficiency
- Burn multiple: net burn ÷ net new ARR. Under 2x is healthy at Series A; under 1x is exceptional.
- Magic number: net new ARR ÷ sales & marketing spend. Above 0.75 is the threshold for accelerating spend.
- CAC payback: months for gross profit from a customer to repay their acquisition cost. Best-in-class is under 12.
- Default-alive ratio: how close you are to profitability at current growth. Investors increasingly ask for this directly.
- Months of runway: the simplest, hardest number. If yours is under 9, investors assume you're desperate.