Project MRR and ARR month by month with your real churn, expansion, and new-logo assumptions.
A free SaaS revenue planner that compounds your starting MRR forward — modelling gross churn, expansion, and new-logo adds separately so you see net revenue retention and ARR trajectory at a glance.
Direct answers to the most common questions, in plain language. Skim if you're in a hurry; dig deeper below.
MRR is monthly recurring revenue. ARR is MRR × 12.
MRR is the predictable subscription revenue you collect each month. ARR (annual recurring revenue) is that same MRR annualized — usually quoted as MRR × 12 — and is the standard headline metric for SaaS scale. Non-recurring fees (setup, services) are excluded from both.
NRR = (start − churn + expansion) ÷ start. Above 100% means you grow without new logos.
NRR measures how the existing customer base alone is growing. It is starting MRR, minus churned MRR, plus expansion MRR (upsells, seats, upgrades), divided by starting MRR. Best-in-class SaaS sits at 120%+ — meaning customers, on net, pay more every month even before new sales.
Triple, triple, double, double, double — the classic SaaS growth ladder from $2M to $100M ARR.
T2D3 is a benchmark trajectory popularized by Battery Ventures: triple ARR in year 1, triple again in year 2, then double for three straight years. Hitting it takes you from roughly $2M to $100M ARR in five years and is a strong predictor of venture-scale outcomes.
Usually yes — it costs a fraction to acquire and signals product-market fit.
Expansion revenue (upgrades, seat growth, cross-sell) typically has 5–10× lower CAC than net-new logos because the customer already trusts you. A business with strong expansion can grow even with zero new sales, which is why investors weight NRR almost as heavily as growth rate.
The mechanics in short answers — no jargon, no upsell.
Whatever recurring revenue you book this month is the seed. Everything compounds from this base, so accuracy here matters more than any growth assumption.
Each month: churned MRR = MRR × gross-churn%, expansion MRR = MRR × expansion%, then add the dollar value of new logo wins. The result is next month's MRR.
The model repeats that calculation for every month in your horizon. Small percentages — 3% churn vs. 5% expansion — turn into massively different ARR shapes 24 months out.
NRR = (starting MRR − churn + expansion) ÷ starting MRR. Above 100% means the existing book grows on its own. Below 100% means you're running on a treadmill — new sales just refill the bucket.
Designed so anyone can model their situation in under a minute, with or without a finance background.
Model MRR month by month under your specific churn, expansion, and new-logo assumptions — not a flat percentage.
See exactly how much extra ARR a 1-point lift in expansion produces over 12, 24, and 36 months.
Watch how a single point of monthly gross churn quietly compounds into a six- or seven-figure ARR gap.
Validate whether your board deck trajectory is plausible given the unit economics you actually have today.
Catch the month your existing base stops compensating for churn — before it shows up in the annual plan.
Tie revenue forecasts to hiring and burn so you stop discovering surprises one quarter too late.
Everything you might ask before, during, or after using this tool.
GAAP revenue includes one-time fees, professional services, usage overages, and timing-of-recognition effects. MRR is purely the recurring subscription component, normalized to a monthly run-rate. A SaaS company with $1M MRR may book substantially more or less than $1M in any given month on the P&L.
For SMB SaaS, monthly gross logo churn of 3–5% is common and 1–2% is excellent. Mid-market typically sees 1–2%. Enterprise should be under 1%. Anything above 5% monthly is a leaky bucket — new sales mostly refill what you lost.
NRR is the single best leading indicator of capital efficiency. A business with 120% NRR doubles roughly every four years even with zero new sales — meaning every dollar of sales-and-marketing spend stacks on top of organic growth. Investors pay premium multiples for it.
Use gross dollar churn — the percent of MRR lost from cancellations and downgrades, before any expansion offset. Expansion is modeled separately. Mixing them into a single "net churn" number hides the underlying mechanics and makes scenarios hard to compare.
Triple, triple, double, double, double — the benchmark Battery Ventures associated with venture-scale SaaS. Starting from $2M ARR, you triple to $6M, triple again to $18M, then double for three years to $36M, $72M, and ~$144M. Few companies achieve it, but it is the bar for the next-tier round.
Yes, but expensively. If churn outpaces expansion, every month's "new sales" budget is partly spent backfilling lost MRR before it contributes to growth. Above 5% monthly gross churn, the math gets brutal — you may need to triple sales output just to hold flat.
It's a simplification. Real new-logo MRR is lumpy quarter to quarter and tends to scale with sales headcount and pipeline. Use this calculator for trajectory and sensitivity analysis, not for board-level monthly forecasts.
They're the same number expressed differently. ARR = MRR × 12, so the percentage change is identical. People quote ARR for fundraising and headline metrics, MRR for operational dashboards because it changes faster.
Other Lazysmirk tools that pair well with this one.
Calculate your startup's monthly burn rate, net burn, and runway in months — so you know exactly when you need to raise or break even.
Drop in monthly numbers, see operating / investing / financing cash flow, plus runway and closing balance.
Value a SaaS business using ARR multiples and the Rule of 40 — see the realistic range buyers and investors will pay.
Calculate gross, operating, and net profit margins on any product, service, or business. See the difference between margin and markup, and price like you mean it.
Set a target margin, get the price, see profit at volume — with markup vs margin and break-even built in.
Calculate monthly payments, true APR, origination fees, and total cost on a small-business term loan — with full amortization schedule and no-fee comparison.
For a recurring-revenue business, the question investors and operators care about isn't "how much did you bill this month?" — it's "how much will keep coming in next month if you do nothing?" That number is MRR, and its annualized cousin is ARR. Everything else is downstream of these two metrics.
The reason is durability. A one-time $200K services contract looks the same as $200K of subscription on the P&L, but the subscription is worth multiples more because it stacks. Twelve months later, the services revenue is gone; the subscription is still there, with a year of compounding behind it.
Every month, your installed base does two things simultaneously: some of it disappears (churn — cancellations, downgrades, business failures of your customers) and some of it grows (expansion — seat increases, plan upgrades, cross-sells, usage-based overages).
The interaction is what produces net revenue retention. If churn is 3% and expansion is 2%, you lose 1% of MRR each month from the existing book — before any new sales. If churn is 1% and expansion is 4%, you gain 3% each month for free. Over 24 months, those two scenarios produce radically different ARR shapes from the same starting point.
When NRR exceeds 100%, your existing customer base grows on its own. That single fact transforms the economics of the entire business. Sales-and-marketing spend becomes additive rather than restorative — every dollar of CAC stacks on top of organic compounding instead of partly backfilling churn.
It also changes how investors value you. Public SaaS companies with NRR above 130% routinely trade at 3–5× the revenue multiple of peers with NRR in the 90s, because the durable growth is essentially free. This is why best-in-class operators obsess over expansion product surface and pricing structure long before they have product-market fit problems to chase.
T2D3 — triple, triple, double, double, double — is a five-year growth trajectory popularized by Neeraj Agrawal at Battery Ventures. It describes the path from roughly $2M ARR to $100M+ ARR that historically separates fund-returning SaaS outcomes from the rest.
Year 1: triple ARR. Year 2: triple again. Years 3–5: double each year. Very few companies do it, but it is the implicit bar for the Series C and beyond in venture-backed software. If you are not anywhere near this curve, the right answer isn't to fake the deck — it's to either find leverage in expansion (raising NRR) or accept that you are building a different, slower kind of business.
Two short notes worth reading before you trust any number on this page.
Your loan amount, rate, and prepayment inputs never leave your device. No accounts, no cookies on your numbers, no analytics on the values you type. Disconnect from the internet and it still works.
We are not a bank, NBFC, advisor, broker, or distributor of any financial product. The numbers shown here are estimates for educational purposes only, based on the inputs you provide.
Results are not financial, legal, or tax advice. Please consult a qualified professional before any decision about your loan, investments, or personal finances. Actual loan terms and charges depend on your bank and individual circumstances.
