The 70% rule, and when to break it.
The 70% rule is a heuristic, not a law. (ARV x 0.70) - rehab gives you a maximum offer that leaves room for holding, financing, selling costs, and profit. In a hot seller market, sticking to 70% can mean losing every deal you bid on; in a cooling market, even 70% can be too aggressive.
Treat the rule as a default. If you have an unusually efficient crew, low financing cost, or a guaranteed buyer, you can ethically stretch above 70%. If you are new, or comps are thin, anchor at 65% and walk away from anything tighter.
How to pull defensible ARV comps.
Three rules: sold within 90 days, within half a mile, and within 10% on square footage. Photos matter — a comp that sold high because of a designer renovation does not justify your ARV unless your finish level matches.
When in doubt, take the median of 5 comps and shave another 3 to 5% as your underwriting ARV. The price you actually sell at is rarely your most optimistic comp.
Holding costs and the silent margin killer.
Every extra month of holding is a tax bill, an insurance premium, a utility bill, an HOA payment, and — if you used financing — an interest payment. On a $300K project, 60 days of extra holding can vaporize $5,000 to $8,000 of profit.
Use a realistic timeline, not the one in your pitch deck. If the MLS is averaging 45 days on market in your area, plan for 60.
Why rehab budgets blow up.
Three causes account for most overruns: hidden conditions (wiring, plumbing, foundation), scope creep (you decide mid-project to redo a bathroom), and code surprises (permits revealing required upgrades).
The cure is a thorough pre-purchase walkthrough with a contractor, a written and signed scope of work, and a 15% contingency you do not touch unless one of those three things hits.
Financing a flip without bleeding cash.
- Hard money: fast close, asset-based, 9 to 13% rates with 1 to 3 points — built for flips but expensive.
- Private money: friends, family, or a network lender — flexible terms, but mix money with relationships carefully.
- Conventional cash-out refi on an existing rental: cheap rates, slow close, only works if you have equity to pull.
- HELOC on your primary: cheapest option for small flips, but you are using your home as collateral.
- All cash: highest ROI, ties up the most capital and limits how many deals you can run in parallel.